The rumor mill for NIL collective deals is now an annual tradition in college sports, a space where stories of alleged offers to athletes in the transfer portal go viral on almost a weekly basis.

But many of the biggest headlines report vastly overinflated numbers, according to four industry experts who work for or with collectives and athletes. “You can say whatever you want, because no one knows … no one talks numbers,” one Power 5 collective operator tells Front Office Sports. “Even our athletes lie about what they make to other athletes on the team.”

Within days of the portal opening this year, on Dec. 4, a bombshell report suggested that Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. fielded an offer around $20 million, presumably an attempt to lure him to stay with the Buckeyes an extra year instead of declaring for the NFL draft.

But none of the four experts FOS spoke to believed that figure was accurate. Even if it were, the offer would be a significant outlier in the collective market.