Introduction The sports industry is no stranger to legal analysis, particularly in recent years. Professional and amateur sports teams have undergone significant changes that raise complex legal questions involving athlete compensation, league administration, and intellectual property. One of the more complex legal issues, however, lies outside sports organizations themselves, at the intersection of legislation and corporate activity. Sports betting and its many variations

I. Introduction In January 2025, a New York-based derivatives exchange called KalshiEX LLC began listing binary contracts tied to the outcomes of NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAA games. The contracts worked exactly like sports bets: a user paid a price between one cent and ninety-nine cents for a “yes” or “no” position on whether a team would win, and received a dollar if correct. But Kalshi did not hold a gaming license in any state. It did not operate under any state’s responsible-

1. Introduction The regulation of sports betting and how sports-related prediction markets fit in is important because gambling harms consumers by placing them in a position of a mathematically guaranteed disadvantage. Common law tests for gambling fail to capture gambling’s distinct harmful nature by only considering the relative aspects of skill and chance within an activity, but state gambling statutes in the places where gambling is most prevalent better account for t

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